On Friday 6 November, Bloomberg reported, citing anonymous sources, that potential buyers are now discussing a valuation of $1.2–1.3 trillion. Some of them are considering a value of $1.1 trillion, one of the sources said. The talks are ongoing, and Anthropic declined to comment.

In early October, investors put the company’s fair value at as much as $2 trillion, Bloomberg reported. After Anthropic presented its latest financial figures in October, the estimate fell to $1.4–1.5 trillion.

The latest drop followed Thursday’s sell-off, in which the Nasdaq 100 index fell 6.4 per cent. The sell-off wiped out $2.3 trillion in market value, a single-day record, Bloomberg said. Doubts about the valuation grew as the Democrats’ win in the congressional elections raised expectations of tighter oversight of data centre construction. Several states also approved ballot initiatives that restrict data centre expansion, The Decoder reported.

The Decoder and AI Times also cited two other outlets. Three major investors preparing for the offering consider a $1.5 trillion valuation hard to reach, and one of them estimates that a suitable value is closer to $1 trillion, the Wall Street Journal reported. Reuters, citing four sources, said that attracting investors may require lowering the valuation further.

Growth slowed and the operating result swung to a loss

Investors want a bigger discount because Anthropic is still loss-making and is spending money on expanding its computing infrastructure, The Decoder reported. According to the amended prospectus, as summarised by AI Times and HuggingNews, revenue for July–September was $16.96 billion, 47 per cent more than in the previous quarter. Growth in the previous quarter had been 144 per cent, AI Times said. HuggingNews reported that the operating result swung to a loss of $567 million. Compute and infrastructure commitments total $895.4 billion.

The amended prospectus does not include October revenue. Anthropic’s annualised revenue exceeded $80 billion at the end of October, up from the previous month, the WSJ reported.

Marketing about to start, timetable uncertain

The Information, cited by AI Times, reported that Anthropic plans to start marketing the offering to institutional investors in the week beginning 9 November and to list in the week beginning 16 November. The company wants to list before the US Thanksgiving holiday, according to a Wallstreetcn report relayed by China’s 36Kr. Reuters said some investors doubt whether the marketing will start on time.

Anthropic plans to raise up to $100 billion, but some investors expect the sum to stay at around $80 billion, AI Times reported. Bloomberg said the company could initially set the size and valuation of the offering conservatively and raise them if demand is strong. Another option is to postpone the offering.

HSBC strategist Max Kettner considers a valuation of around $1 trillion a more suitable level because it would reduce the risk of sharp price swings once trading begins, Bloomberg reported. ‘I don’t think we need the headline “oh my god, it is a trillion dollar IPO,” because I think what’s actually more important is the secondary,’ Kettner told Bloomberg Radio. Morningstar strategist Michael Field expects Anthropic to accept a slightly lower valuation if markets stay at current levels. A postponement could do more damage to the valuation in the long run, Field said.