On 9 November, Der Spiegel reported on a measure from the ifo Institute, drawing on a story by the news agency dpa. The institute calls the measure its AI early indicator (KI-Frühindikator). It is designed to track how the spread of AI shows up in working life.

The researchers compared employment and new hires in 140 occupations with how easily AI can replace the tasks in each. Data entry and word processing top the list of the most exposed, followed by software developers, accountants, database and network technicians, and authors and journalists. The least exposed are craft and other manual occupations such as construction workers, carpenters, painters, cleaners and farmers.

In the most exposed occupations, full-time employment among 20- to 24-year-olds has fallen by 14 per cent since 2022. The researchers stress that AI alone does not explain the change. Demographic change and longer periods of study may also play a part, they say.

For people at the start of their careers, what matters is whether AI complements their tasks or automates them, said ifo economist Yuchen Guo. ‘In areas such as supporting office work or IT support, which have so far offered good entry opportunities, AI can already take over many tasks,’ Guo said.

Overall employment tells a different story. The ifo Institute said employment in AI-exposed occupations has grown by 1.8 per cent since 2022. Over the same period, employment in occupations that AI barely reaches has fallen by 6.4 per cent. These figures cover all age groups, so they cannot be compared directly with the figure for young people’s full-time work.

‘We have so far seen nothing of broad job cuts caused by AI,’ said ifo President Clemens Fuest. ‘But anyone starting out in working life feels the change first.’

Oliver Falck, one of the study’s co-authors, sees the loss of jobs for young people entering the workforce as an early warning sign in the labour market. The authors also see positive effects: AI can support people in their work and make them more productive.